The use of spatial ecological modelling as a tool for improving the assessment of geographic range size of threatened species

We analysed endemic threatened tree and reptile species of Socotra Island (Yemen), characterised by different ecological requirements and spatial distribution, in order to evaluate the usefulness of spatial ecological modelling in the estimation of species extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occupancy (AOO). Point occurrences for the entire species range were used to model their spatial distribution by Random Forest (RF) and Generalised Linear Model (GLM). For each species the suitability area (SA) was obtained by applying the 0% omission error criterion on the probability map, and compared or integrated with EOO and AOO area obtained by topological methods such as the minimum convex polygon (MCP), α-hull and 2km×2km grid.