A pattern-oriented model for assessing effects of weather and freshwater discharge on black coral ( Antipathes fiordensis ) distribution in a fjord

•Black coral survival is modelled in response to salinity change in New Zealand Fjords.•Model parameters were estimated using a pattern-oriented approach.•Upper depth limit of black corals is limited by exposure to low-salinity layers.•Weather is ultimately a key driver of black coral distribution in New Zealand fjords.