Conservation of Portuguese red-listed bryophytes species in Portugal: Promoting a shift in perspective on climate changes

Knowledge of bryophyte diversity can be an important tool for identifying overall biodiversity hotspots. The distribution of red-listed species is an essential data for biodiversity conservation actions, and the assessment of species' response to climate change scenarios is also a key tool in future conservation strategies. In this study, we examine the response of four phytogeographic assemblages of all Portuguese red-listed bryophytes whose distributions are well documented in Portugal. The red-listed species were selected based on their vulnerability as listed in the new Atlas and Red Data book of Portuguese bryophytes according to the IUCN criteria. The main purpose of this study is to develop predictive distributions of threatened bryophytes grouped according to phytogeographic trends aiming to conserve this bryoflora in future. This is achieved by the identification of relationships between specimens' distributions and environmental ecologically meaningful data, which is known to influence different phytogeographic assemblages. Significant differences were found in all distribution models based on future climate scenarios. Several variables play a vital role in the species' distribution models in present and future environmental conditions.