Pre-positioning and dynamic delivery planning for short-term response following a natural disaster

Natural disasters often result in large numbers of evacuees being temporarily housed in schools, churches, and other shelters. The sudden influx of people seeking shelter creates demands for emergency supplies, which must be delivered quickly. A dynamic allocation model is constructed to optimize pre-event planning for meeting short-term demands (over approximately the first 72h) for emergency supplies under uncertainty about what demands will have to be met and where those demands will occur. The model also includes requirements for reliability in the solutions – i.e., the solution must ensure that all demands are met in scenarios comprising at least 100α% of all outcomes. A case study application using shelter locations in North Carolina and a set of hurricane threat scenarios is used to illustrate the model and how it supports an emergency relief strategy.