Vulnerability of water resources to climate change scenarios. Impacts on the irrigation districts in the Guayalejo-Tamesí river basin, Tamaulipas, México

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change induced water availability variations on the irrigation districts in the Guayalejo-Tamesi River Basin in Tamaulipas, Mexico. A model was developed using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) to describe the vulnerability of the water resources in the case study river basin, taking into account the effects that climate change can have on water availability in the municipal, industrial, and agricultural sectors. The parameter to assess the extent to which the area is vulnerable to climate change was the Precipitation/Temperature relationship, or Lang Index. The latest version of the climate change program MAGICC/ScenGen was used, considering the MPIECH-5, GFDL2.0, and UKHADCM3 models for the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The results indicate that climate change scenarios have the most negative impact on water availability in the agricultural sector. In addition, an analysis of the results suggests that water concessions, irrigation districts and hydraulic infrastructure in the river basin need to be reconsidered and updated to assure water availability to all its users.