Real-time PCR quantification and spatio-temporal distribution of airborne inoculum of Puccinia triticina in Belgium

In order to better understand the epidemiology of Puccinia triticina and the relationship between airborne inoculum and disease severity, a method for quantifying airborne inoculum was developed using volumetric Burkard 7-day spore traps and real-time PCR. The method was applied using a spore trap network from 1 March to 30 June over a 5-year period. At one site, the inoculum was quantified continuously over 3 years, during which it showed a seasonal distribution, with the highest quantities and detection frequencies occurring between May and June. High mean daily quantities (65.8–121.2 spores/day) and detection frequencies (±20 % of days) were also reported after harvest from September to December. In the coldest months of the year, almost no detection was recorded (1–6 % of days). The study results indicate that the absence of inoculum in the air when upper leaves are emerging could be a limiting factor for the risk of epidemics. Mean daily quantities of airborne inoculum (0–131.4 spores/day) were measured from the beginning of stem elongation (GS30) to the flag leaf stage (GS39). These values were well correlated with the disease severity levels measured during grain development. A multiple regression analysis showed that total rainfall in late summer and autumn and mean minimum temperature in winter positively influence spore density between GS30 and GS39 in the following spring (R 2 = 0.73). This relationship and the patterns of airborne inoculum observed in fields strongly suggest the existence of a ‘green bridge’ phenomenon in Belgium. Our study also showed that the quantification of airborne inoculum or its estimation using a weather-based predictive model could be useful for interpreting disease severity models and avoiding over-estimates of disease risk.