DISTRICT ELECTRICITY DEMAND PREDICTION UNDER LARGE DIFFUSION OF PHOTOVOLTAICS AND ENERGY SAVING TECHNOLOGY

The national target for photovoltaic generation (PV) diffusion is 28GW by 2020 and 53GW by 2030. However, when the installed capacity of PV increased, some problems will occur in the distribution system because of reverse power flow. To cope with these problems, there has been growing interest in smart grid system. In this study, the electricity load curves of several districts are predicted with estimation of electricity generated by PV and electricity consumption in the future when energy saving technologies will be developed and diffused by a bottom-up simulation model of residential and commercial sectors. Not only regional difference in the electricity load curve, but also seasonal difference, difference between weekday and holiday, sunny day and cloudy day are discussed. Finally the effect of installation of storage battery is evaluated with these results.