Abstract P054: The CUORE Project: The Predictive Role Of Cardiovascular Risk Factors Among Elderly Persons

Background: The number of elderly persons with cardiovascular disease (CVD) is rapidly increasing, mainly due to worldwide aging population. All CVD risk scores consider age as risk factor but most of them assume that the etiological role of other established risk factors is similar at all ages. This analyses aimed to assess the predictive role of cardiovascular risk factors in elderly persons. Methods: We considered 10,979 men and 16,533 women aged 35-74 years from cohorts in North, Centre and South of Italy with 10 years median follow-up time for fatal and non fatal coronary and cerebrovascular events (819 in men and 467 in women) validated according to MONICA criteria. In all cohorts risk factors were assessed by using standardized procedures. Two age groups were defined: adult 35-54 years of age (6,353 men and 10,358 women) and elderly 55-74 years (4,626 men and 6,175 men). Cox models were implemented including age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), total (TC) and HDL cholesterol (HDL-C), smoking, diabetes (DM - fasting blood glucose >=126 mg/dl or under glucose treatment) and hypertension treatment (HT). For continuous variables, hazard ratios (HR) were reported at 1 standard deviation higher level and for dichotomized variables, yes vs no. Results: For adult men SBP resulted having a stronger impact on CVD risk than for elderly even if not statistically significant: adult HR 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.18-1.48, vs elderly HR 1.25, 1.15-1.36; similar results for TC (HR 1.47 vs 1.25), smoking (HR 1.91, vs 1.52), DM (HR 1.76 vs 1.56), HT (HR 2.30 vs 1.25). HDL-C resulted not significantly associated with CVD risk in elderly men. Among adult women a stronger impact was found than in elderly for SBP (HR 1.59 vs 1.26), HDL-C (0.65 vs 0.84), smoking (2.43 vs 1.99), and HT (2.34 vs 1.45); the opposite for TC (1.19 vs 1.27). DM resulted not significantly associated with CVD risk in adult women. Age resulted having a stronger impact in elderly persons both in men and women (HR 1.22, 1.07-1.39, vs 1.44, 1.29-1.61; 1.45, 1.17-1.80, vs 1.63, 1.42-1.86 respectively). Conclusions: SBP and HT resulted having a pronounced lower impact on CVD risk in elderly than in adult as well as HDL-C for men; age shows a stronger impact in elderly than in adult. Further analyses are recommended to study the reliability of risk scores based on age-specific risk models, evaluating the introduction of different risk factors and considering survival probability derived from data in elderly population.