A Landmark Analysis of 30-day Mortality after Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery in Patients with Ischemic Heart Failure: Results of the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) Trial

Background: Among patients (pts) with coronary artery disease (CAD) who are candidates for coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG), a reduced ejection fraction (EF) identifies a high-risk group. The profile of pre-operative, intra-operative and post-operative factors contributing to 30 day (d) mortality in pts with low EF undergoing CABG has not been well characterized. Methods: The STICH trial enrolled 2136 pts with CAD amenable to CABG with an LVEF < 35% who were treated with medical therapy (MED) alone, MED with CABG, or with MED plus CABG and surgical ventricular resconstruction (SVR). Multivariable logistic regression models utilizing extensive baseline, intra-operative and post-operative care variables were developed to determine factors associated with mortality at 30d in a landmark analysis among pts surviving the first 36 hours (h). Results: Among those enrolled, 1460 pts received CABG; 673 (46.1%) on pump, 160 (11.0%) off pump, 132 (9.0%) with a mitral valve procedure (MVR), 393 (26.9%) with SVR, and 102 (7.0%) received CABG with SVR and MVR. Mortality in the operating room (OR) was 0.3 %, within the first 36h was 1.0%, and at 30d was 5.1%. The rate of in-hospital acute myocardial infarction was 0.8%, stroke 1.6%, mediastinitis 1.7%, worsening renal insufficiency 8.4%, and return to OR was 6.9%. Inotropes were used in 43.6% and intra-aortic balloon pump in 18.6%. At 36h, 148 pts (10.2%) remained intubated. Among pts who survived to 36h, a robust multivariable model (Table, c-statistic 0.89) was developed to predict 30d mortality. A prolonged intubation time (>36h) was the strongest marker of 30d mortality (odds ratio 7.4, 95% CI 3.8, 14.5, p<0.0001). Conclusions: Among pts with ischemic heart failure, CABG can be performed with a low rate of complications and intra-operative mortality. Prolonged intubation time (>36h) after CABG is an integrated clincal marker that may serve to identify those pts with the least likelihood of survival to 30d.