Challenges of sustainable development in rural areas of Albania

The rural mountainous areas are significantly affected by both social and economic changes. Albania occupies a considerable place when compared to other countries across the continent. Based on the fact that about 50% of the population lives in mountainous areas, the study was organized by the Department of Agrarian Policies at the Agricultural University of Tirana. The main purpose is to describe the economic and social diagnosis of mountainous rural areas and to suggest policies will follow in the future. As a model to be studied, communes in the districts of Puka and Kukes have been taken, which as the INSTAT set of data reveals, they figure to be among the districts with the largest population shifts and the highest poverty levels. For the realization of this study various statistical methods have been used. These statistical models are called ARIMA models (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models). Some models of this type have been compared in order to come up with the best one. Based the data and the polls conducted, will prescribe the future trends and inclinations. Based on the European concept of sustainable development (1), recommendations will be issued and conclusions drawn as to how these areas could be further developed and what kind of policies should be implemented to stimulate the residents of such areas to remain in their places. Main result of this research shows that majority of people from rural areas are already emigrated or have an intention to do that in the future. In such situation, manuscript offers a suggestion how to improve situation in rural areas by developing sustainable tourism, as industry which can improve demographic situation in Albanian rural areas and contribute to increasing of income for rural areas and Albania as a whole.