Landscape Fragmentation Caused By Traffic In The Czech Republic: Evolution From The Year 1980 And The Prognosis Till 2040

Landscape fragmentation, a process where biotopes are separated into different parts by a creation of a barrier, is a key issue of landscape ecology nowadays. Separated landscape patches gradually lose their potential to fulfil their original function. There is general effort to develop universal model or set of indicators for fragmentation measurement. In the CR we carried out research project "Integration of landscape fragmentation issue into the decision-making processes" leading by the Ministry of by the Ministry of Transport. Within the project, we applied the method of determination of unfragmented areas by traffic. These areas, so called UAT polygons, are defined as part of the landscape which simultaneously fulfils two conditions: (a) it is bounded either by roads with a traffic intensity of more than 1000 vehicles/day, or multi-track railways, (b) it covers an area greater or equal to 100 sq km. We extended this method with a qualitative approach and future perspective, and introduced two model variables: (i) effective area (sq km) which represents the area inside the polygon which can be used by the given species; (ii) potential barrier (km) used for the quantification of the future risk from traffic, comprises an assessment both of the length and permeability of barriers. From the nature conservation viewpoint is fundamental to gain time complex data series and to focus on the future prognosis. Based on GIS, CORINE database and data of traffic volume we elaborated and described the development of landscape fragmentation in the whole CR between the years 1980 and 2005 in five-year intervals with the prognosis till the year 2040. The results show that the coverage of unfragmented areas declined from 83,4% in 1980 to 64,9% in 2005, with the prognosis of 53,1% in 2040. The structure of polygons is also changing; smaller polygons gradually prevail with the time. The issue of landscape fragmentation is necessary to incorporate in all decision-making processes and landscape planning. This methodology and presented results represent useful background material.