Earthquake Prediction, Seismic Hazard and Vulnerability

Mitigation of seismic hazards requires integration of science and human action, namely the science of earthquakes, anti-seismic engineering and socio-political measures. The public, media, policy makers and funding agencies must be constantly reminded that seismic disasters rapidly escalate with civilization's growth and that disasters come when the last tragedy has been "forgotten". Loss of human life is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of houses and other buildings within less than a few minutes of the main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure is the reinforcement of weak structures. When structural damage is reduced, most other seismic hazards will correspondingly be greatly reduced. If short-term prediction is made, casualties will be further reduced dramatically. Despite general pessimism, short-term prediction research needs to be enhanced because recent research shows real promise. Thus, the reinforcement of existing structures and enhancement of short-term prediction research are the two keys for seismic hazard mitigation.