REGIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING OVER GREECE WITHIN PROMOTE

An air quality forecast system is set up in order to predict near surface air pollutants levels over Greece. The forecast system consists of the prognostic meteorological model MM5 and the photochemical air quality model CAMx and runs operationally on a daily basis to issue 72-hour forecasts. The modeling domain, having spatial resolution equal to 10km, covers Greece and a part of the neighbouring Balkan countries. MM5 simulations are initialized and develop lateral boundary conditions using GFS Global Forecast. The boundary concentrations of the photochemical model are predictions of the European scale Chemistry Transport Model EURAD-CTM. The emission data used as CAMx input data are hourly values of biogenic NMVOCs and anthropogenic NOx, NMVOCs and CO emissions. The forecast system produces maps of daily maximum hourly concentrations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide and daily maximum 8h- average concentrations of carbon monoxide. Evaluation of the air quality forecasting has been performed by Greek environmental authorities. The forecast system is capable of reproducing the main features of air quality over the area where observations were available. Modeling system performance is better regarding O3 and NO2 while CO concentrations are systematically underestimated. More reliable is the forecast issued during days when it is not raining.