Quantitative Parameter Of Risk Perception: Can We Measure A Geoethic And Socio-Economic Component In Disaster Vulnerability?

This paper is dedicated to the study of risk perception issues. A formal algorithm for the quantitative analysis of social factors of disaster risk is proposed. A modified form of the damage function based on the prospect theory and decision making under uncertainty due to cognitive bias and the handling of risk is proposed. Relationships for analysis of the most probable damage according to age, education and income of the population are proposed. Using multi-source statistics, the interconnected influence of education and long-term experience (education function) on the one hand, and short-term information (risk perception function) on the other hand to develop the damage function as a measure of vulnerability toward disasters has been demonstrated. As the result of the data analysis demonstrates, up to half of the damage function might be caused by social factors: education, long-term experience and responsible behaviour of information agents. It was concluded that public efforts based on ethical principles and directed toward empowering people and developing the human capacity through education can have a positive response in reducing vulnerability and enhancing the adaptive capacity toward the disasters including climate-related threats.