Research on Modeling and Algorithm of Supply Chain's Reliability Based on CCFSM

Reliability is one of the most important characteristics of the functioning of supply chains. Modeling supply chain's reliability based on common causes of failure between supplier(s) and manufacturers (abbreviated as CCFSM) is a complex and important problem. To identify key factors which cause the failure in the supply chain, the principle of fault tree analysis and the method of Monte Carlo simulation are proposed to apply in the modeling and the algorithm of supply chain's reliability based on CCFSM. After analyzing detailed failure factors which lead to supply chain failure, its diagnostic model is established with the principle of fault tree analysis and the diagnostic algorism of key factors is studied by the method of the Monte Carlo simulation, which can calculate unreliability and the key importance of supply chain. Lastly, the case is presented to prove the model and algorithm's feasibility and validity.