Spatial clustering of measles cases during endemic (1998–2002) and epidemic (2010) periods in Lusaka, Zambia

Background Measles cases may cluster in densely populated urban centers in sub-Saharan Africa as susceptible individuals share spatially dependent risk factors and may cluster among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children despite high vaccination coverage. Methods Children hospitalized with measles at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) in Lusaka, Zambia were enrolled in the study. The township of residence was recorded on the questionnaire and mapped; SaTScan software was used for cluster detection. A spatial-temporal scan statistic was used to investigate clustering of measles in children hospitalized during an endemic period (1998 to 2002) and during the 2010 measles outbreak in Lusaka, Zambia. Results Three sequential and spatially contiguous clusters of measles cases were identified during the 2010 outbreak but no clustering among HIV-infected children was identified. In contrast, a space-time cluster among HIV-infected children was identified during the endemic period. This cluster occurred prior to the introduction of intensive measles control efforts and during a period between seasonal peaks in measles incidence. Conclusions Prediction and early identification of spatial clusters of measles will be critical to achieving measles elimination. HIV infection may contribute to spatial clustering of measles cases in some epidemiological settings.