Hidden osteophyte formation on plain X-ray is the predictive factor for development of knee osteoarthritis after 48 months--data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

To examine whether the detection of osteophytes anywhere in the knee could serve as a pre-radiographic biomarker for osteoarthritis (OA) development.Baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRIs) of 132 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) were studied. Based on radiographs, 66 knees were assessed as osteoarthritis-free (no-osteoarthritis [NOA], or Kellgren/Lawrence [K/L] severity grade 0/1 both at baseline and 48 months), and another 66 knees were assessed as having radiographic OA changes (pre-radiographic osteoarthritis [PROA], or with K/L grade 0/1 at baseline and grade ≥ 2 at 48 months). Using baseline MRI data, we examined eight sites of osteophyte formation: the medial and lateral femoral condyle (MFC and LFC, respectively); medial and lateral tibial plateau (MTP and LTP, respectively); medial and lateral facets of the patellofemoral joint (PM and PL, respectively); tibial spine (TS); and femoral intercondylar notch (IC). Knee joint osteophyte size was assessed via the 8-point marginal osteophytes item of the whole-organ magnetic resonance imaging score (WORMS). The frequencies and distributions of osteophytes were compared between groups.Mild-size osteophytes (defined as score ≥ 2) were observed more frequently at the MFC (P = 0.00278), MTP (P = 0.0046), TS (P = 0.0146), PM (P < 0.0001), PL (P = 0.0012), and IC (P < 0.0001) in PROA knees than in NOA knees. Moderate-size osteophytes (defined as score ≥ 4) were more frequently observed in PROA knees than in NOA knees only at the IC (P < 0.0001).Knees with osteophyte formation at the IC, even those of K/L severity grade 0/1, are at risk for the development of radiographic OA by 48 months.