Day-to-day measurement of physical activity and risk of atrial fibrillation

Aims The aim of this study was to investigate the association between within-individual changes in physical activity and onset of atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods and Results A total of 1410 participants from the general population (46.2% women, mean age 74.7 +/- 4.1 years) with risk factors but with no prior AF diagnosis underwent continuous monitoring for AF episodes along with daily accelerometric assessment of physical activity using an implantable loop recorder during approximate to 3.5 years. The combined duration of monitoring was approximate to 1.6 million days, where 10 851 AF episodes lasting >= 60 min were detected in 361 participants (25.6%) with a median of 5 episodes (2, 25) each. The median daily physical activity was 112 (66, 168) min/day. A dynamic parameter describing within-individual changes in daily physical activity, i.e. average daily activity in the last week compared to the previous 100 days, was computed and used to model the onset of AF. A 1-h decrease in average daily physical activity was associated with AF onset the next day [odds ratio 1.24 (1.18-1.31)]. This effect was modified by overall level of activity (P < 0.001 for interaction), and the signal was strongest in the tertile of participants with lowest activity overall [low: 1.62 (1.41-1.86), mid: 1.27 (1.16-1.39), and high: 1.10 (1.01-1.19)]. Conclusions Within-individual changes in physical activity are associated with the onset of AF episodes as detected by continuous monitoring in a high-risk population. For each person, a 1-h decrease in daily physical activity during the last week increased the odds of AF onset the next day by approximate to 25%, while the strongest association was seen in the group with the lowest activity overall. [GRAPHICS] .