The Navy's coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave prediction system

An air-ocean-wave modeling system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory to provide improved predictive capabilities to the warfighter in regions that include an oceanic component. Each of the three operational models, run in a standalone mode, have provided 48 to 96 hour forecast guidance for the past several years. Utilizing the Earth System Modeling Framework, a model coupler exchanges needed information between the model components and interpolates between the model grids. This paper will discuss the model coupling and provide a brief overview of validation studies that have been performed in the Adriatic Sea, Ligurian Sea and Kuroshio extension, with a particular emphasis on air-sea interactions. Model studies presented here focus on the upper ocean (mixed layer) heat fluxes, near surface winds, temperature, moisture, the air-sea interaction, and the marine boundary layer characteristics. Validation studies presented here show the most improvements in ocean heat fluxes, due to a more realistic sea surface temperature. The coupled system is scheduled for operational implementation at Navy production centers beginning in 2011.