Study on the early-warning threshold of structural instability unexpected accidents of reservoir dam

The early-warning of unexpected accidents offers an effective technical support for emergency management of dam safety,which can reduce losses significantly. In this paper,the definition and classification of unexpected accidents of reservoir dam were studied. The characteristics of structural instability of dam were discussed. With aging component of safety monitoring model as warning signs,the paroxysmal models of aging component were established based on catastrophe theory. The calculation method of the early-warning threshold of structural instability unexpected accidents of reservoir dam was put forward by combination with genetic optimization algorithm. The project case shows that the method is feasible.