Exploring spatio-temporal changes in coastal recreational fisheries and potential links to extreme weather events.

Extreme weather events across coastal environments are expected to increase in frequency under predicted climate change scenarios. These events can impact coastal recreational fisheries and their supporting ecosystems by influencing the productivity of fish stocks or altering behaviours and decision-making among fishers. Using off-site telephone/diary survey data on estuarine and oceanic recreational fishing activity in eastern Australia, we analyse interannual and geographic variability in bream (Acanthopagrus spp) and snapper (Chrysophrys auratus) catch, total effort and total catch per unit effort (CPUE) through a period (2013/2014, 2017/2018 and 2019/2020) that encompassed severe drought, bushfires and flooding. Interacting spatial and temporal differences were detected for bream and may reflect spatial variation in the intensity and extent of some of the extreme weather events. The catch of snapper did not change temporally, providing little evidence that this species' catch may be influenced by the extreme weather events. Independent bioregional and temporal effects on effort were detected, while CPUE only showed significant bioregional differences. Although adverse conditions created by the extreme weather events may have dissuaded fisher participation and impacted effort, we propose that the observed temporal patterns in effort reflect the early influence of socio-economic changes brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic on coastal recreational fishing, over and above the impacts of extreme weather events. This study demonstrates how interrelated ecological, social and economic factors can shape coastal recreational fisheries and facilitates development of management strategies to address future threats to the sector.