A kind of stochastic duel model for guerrilla war

This paper discusses a stochastic duel model between two forces. On one side are the guerrilla (or terrorists), and on the other an organized force of some sort. The model is called guerrilla war. The guerrilla side has a number of advantages such as choice of location and time of engagement, concealment by topography, observation of the intended target, and line of fire. We represent these advantages in what we believe is a realistic scenario of a duel between the guerrilla force and the organized force. By the four suppositions coinciding with the practical duel background, the paper deduces the formulas for calculating the winning probabilities for the both sides.