Space Weather Forecasting Historically Viewed Through The Lens Of Meterology

Generic analogies exist between forecast meteorology and space weather forecasting. Besides sharing a common dynamical paradigm in the form of continuum mechanics, it also happens that both disciplines are concerned with three types of storm systems that have parallel aspects in relative sizes, energies, and diculty of predictability. Arranged hierarchically by size, these are extratropical cyclones and M-region storms, hurricanes and CMEs, tornadoes and super GIC-inducing auroral electrojets. Forecast meteorology, being older than space weather forecasting, has progressed further along the path of improving forecast services. We have identified ten general stages through which forecast meteorology has progressed: 1, societal need; 2, visual observations; 3, instrument observations; 4, synoptic imagery; 5, ocial forecast centres; 6, storm-structure definition; 7, subjective analysis; 8, objective analysis; 9, numerical predictions; and 10, storm tracking. Space weather forecasting has progressed through, or is progressing into, nine of these stages, missing only stage 9, numerical weather prediction. Forecast meteorology has learned useful lessons, perhaps the most important of which is the ‘escalator effect’ (constantly improving skill scores) which forecasts enter the stage of numerical predictions. Space weather forecasting is moving rapidly in the direction of numerical predictions. Meanwhile, objective forecast algorithms have assumed or are assuming a relatively larger role in space weather forecasting. Another important lesson from forecast meteorology is the benefit that would accrue to the profession were it to expose space physics students to actualities of operational space weather forecasting.