Predictors of relapse and overall survival in Philadelphia chromosome–positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia after transplantation

Allogeneic transplantation offers a potential cure for patients with Philadelphia chromosome–positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph+ ALL). We performed a retrospective analysis examining pretransplantation and posttransplantation prognostic factors in 90 patients with Ph+ ALL. The median age of the patients was 33 years, with slightly more than half of the patients (58%) in clinical remission at the time of transplantation. Overall, patients had a nonrelapse mortality rate of 30%, a relapse percentage of 34%, and an estimated 5-year disease-free survival rate of 30%. Pretransplantation risk factors for relapse included the expression of the p190 transcript (relative risk [RR] = 5.1; P = .037), evidence of morphologic disease at the time of transplantation (RR = 3.9; P < .001), and type of donor (RR = 2.5; P = .015), with patients receiving autologous or matched related transplants having the highest risk of relapse. The detection of minimal residual disease by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for bcr-abl transcripts was a significant posttransplantation risk factor for relapse (RR = 4.4; P = .001), with posttransplantation patients expressing the p190 transcript having the highest risk of relapse (RR = 8.7; P = .0001). In addition, patients with chronic extensive graft-versus-host disease showed a significantly lower risk of relapse (RR = 0.33; P = .038). Thus, these findings indicate that several pretransplantation and posttransplantation risk factors exist for patients with Ph+ ALL. Together, these factors can be used to improve our risk stratification of patients with Ph+ ALL who undergo transplantation, which will greatly enhance our ability to counsel these patients and potentially lead to the development of more specific treatment plans for them. © 2003 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation