Recent decline and potential distribution in the last remnant area of the microendemic Mexican axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum)

Native populations of the axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum), a microendemic salamander from Central Mexico, have seen alarming decline in the last decades owing to habitat loss caused by urban growth. The last remnant of its distribution is in a highly heterogeneous urban–rural water system in the Xochimilco region, at the southern edge of Mexico City. We developed a model of the species local distribution based on its ecological niche, using occurrence data and ad hoc limnetic variables via the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP), to identify suitable areas for the species and prioritize conservation efforts. Results indicated that potential distribution of the axolotl in Xochimilco is limited to 11 sites in six reduced, isolated, and scattered areas, located mostly in zones where traditional agriculture (chinampas) is the primary land use. Recent surveys found only a single organism in the whole study region, in one of the predicted sites, suggesting a critical situation for the long-term survival of the axolotl in the wild, and demanding urgent actions toward habitat and population restoration. This study also illustrates the utility of niche modeling approaches for aquatic systems at a fine scale.