Development of a criterion for response to therapy at 6 months in multiple myeloma.

To investigate the prognostic value of therapy at 6 months on survival in multiple myeloma, to develop a new criterion assessing response to initial therapy at 6 months, and to compare it to a current criterion. The types of initial and 6-month therapy were considered in a prognostic factor analysis in 70 patients treated in routine practice. Using the response to initial therapy defined by the clinician's decision as grouping variable in this group, a discriminant analysis identified the characteristics of responder patients. The validity of the resulting criterion was tested in another test group. Its prognostic ability was compared to the CLMTF criterion (50% M-component reduction from baseline). The therapy at 6 months, reflecting the clinician's appraisal of response to initial therapy, predicted survival significantly. A criterion combining two variables (M-component change and haemoglobin level at 6 months) classified 70% and 72.4% of patients correctly regarding response status in the training and test groups respectively. This criterion was shown to perform better than the CLMTF criterion in predicting survival.A new criterion for response to therapy at 6 months, also presented in a nomogram, combines M-component change and haemoglobin level at 6 months.