Corporate Evidential Decision Making in Performance Prediction Domains
UAI'97: Proceedings of the Thirteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence(2013)
摘要
Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The mathematical Theory of Evidence offers representation formalisms which grant experts a high degree of freedom when expressing their subjective beliefs in the context of decision-making situations like performance prediction. Furthermore, this reasoning framework incorporates a powerful mechanism to systematically pool the decisions made by individual subject matter experts. The idea behind such a combination of knowledge is to improve the competence (quality) of the overall decision-making process. This paper reports on a performance prediction experiment carried out during the European Football Championship in 1996. Relying on the knowledge of four predictors, Evidence Theory was used to forecast the final scores of all 31 matches. The results of this empirical study are very encouraging.
更多查看译文
关键词
performance prediction,performance prediction experiment,Evidence Theory,decision-making situation,mathematical Theory,overall decision-making process,European Football Championship,considerable amount,empirical study,final score,corporate evidential decision,performance prediction domain
AI 理解论文
溯源树
样例
生成溯源树,研究论文发展脉络
Chat Paper
正在生成论文摘要