Product Interpretation of Refined Hourly Temperature Based on the Assimilation of WRF Model in LAPS

Based on the assimilation of refined WRF model products in Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS),in order to meet the needs of the power system temperature forecast,several product interpretation forecast methods of hourly temperature were designed in Hubei Province and surrounding stations from 1 April to 20 July 2011.Compared with other several forecast models,results show that the WRF model has a good simulation of temperature trend,the temperature forecast accuracy score is around 50%,the forecast error in the daytime of 08—20 BT is less than that in the nighttimes,the accuracy score of maximum temperature is 54%and the accuracy score of minimum temperature is 44%.The forecast accuracy can be further improved through product interpretation of model output,so that the accuracy score reached to 60%—70%,that of maximum temperature got 57%and that of minimum temperature reached 74%.In addition,the MOS equation established hourly time can effectively reduce the forecast errors in nighttime of 20—07 BT.Furthermore,bringing maximum temperature factor into Kalman system equations can be further improved forecast accuracy.