The near-closure of a lagoon in western Iceland: how accurate were predictions of impacts on environment and biota?

The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) project instigated in connection with the near-closure of the large fjord-like lagoon Gilsfjörður in sub-arctic western Iceland with a road is described and discussed. Three phases were involved: a survey of pre-impact conditions of areas possibly affected as well as control areas, predictions of impacts of the road, and assessment of impacts up to 5–6 years after completion of the project. Emphasis was placed on birds and benthic flora and fauna. Although several predictions were upheld, others were not. The most unexpected changes were the elimination of kelp forest and some associated fauna inside the road as well as from large areas outside it. Feeding areas of the knot ( Calidris canutus ) and female eiders ( Somateria mollissima ) with ducklings also changed in unexpected ways. Unforeseen changes can partly be traced to inadequate knowledge of communities and their functioning in the area. The ecological requirements of many species involved, e.g. with respect to salinity, were imperfectly known. The predictions of engineers on the effects of the project on physical factors were not as accurate or detailed as desired. Some critical predictions of the engineers failed to make an impact on the ecologists, who then failed to predict some major changes in the biota, such as the disappearance of kelp forest outside the road. This study highlights some problems probably shared by many EIAs: (a) the near impossibility of finding suitable control areas, (b) the lack of ecological understanding of even common species, and possibly (c) inadequate communication between engineers and ecologists.