Innovative carbon emission estimation strategy for biomass materials using near-infrared (NIR) spectrum

•Global warming potentiality caused by different heat utilization of biological raw materials.•Evaluation of calorific value of agricultural waste by machine learning.•Relationship between near infrared spectroscopy and global warming potential.•The GWP caused by direct combustion of biomass was 1.8–3.1 times that of biogas in 20–500 years.