A modelling methodology for assessing the impact of climate variability and climatic change on hydroelectric generation

A new methodology relating basic climatic variables to hydroelectric generation was developed. The methodology can be implemented in large or small basins with any number of hydro plants. The method was applied to the Sacramento, Eel and Russian river basins in-northern California where more than 100 hydroelectric plants are located. The final model predicts the availability of hydroelectric generation for the entire basin provided present and near past climate conditions, with about 90% accuracy. The results can be used for water management purposes or for analyzing the effect of climate variability on hydrogeneration. Climate change scenarios were defined to investigate the impact of global warming on the hydrogeneration availability in the basin. A wide range of results can be obtained depending on the climate change scenario used. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.