Doubling of serum creatinine as a surrogate marker of esrd: pp.9.363

Several covariates modified the predictive value of DSC: baseline renal function (<40 vs ! Ã40 ml/min/1.73m# : hazard ratio (HR) vs no DSC: 13.0 vs 38.5, P = 0.0168); time to DSC: HR varied from 65.8 (time to DSC<1 year) to 29.5 (<5 years) and to 9.5 (>10 years); choice of the timing of the reference serum creatinine value: HR was 25.5 [16.8–38.8] when the 3-month value was chosen but it fell to 18.0 [12.1–26.6] for the 12-month value (the difference persisted regardless of baseline renal function). Age, weight and gender (all parameters influencing serum creatinine values) did not modify the predictive value of DSC.