Towards a robust modeling of temporal interest change patterns for behavioral targeting

Modern web-scale behavioral targeting platforms leverage historical activity of billions of users to predict user interests and inclinations, and consequently future activities. Future activities of particular interest involve purchases or transactions, and are referred to as conversions. Unlike ad-clicks, conversions directly translate to advertiser's revenue, and thus provide a very concrete metric for return on advertising investment. A typical behavioral targeting system faces two main challenges: the web-scale amounts of user histories to process on a daily basis, and the relative sparsity of conversions (compared to clicks in a traditional setting). These challenges call for generation of effective and efficient user profiles. Most existing works use the historical intensity of a user's interest in various topics to model future interest. In this paper we explore how the change in user behavior can be used to predict future actions and show how it complements the traditional models of decaying interest and action recency to build a complete picture about the user interests and better predict conversions. Our evaluation over a real-world set of campaigns indicates that the combination of change of interest, decaying intensity, and action recency helps in: 1) scoring significant improvements in optimizing for conversions over traditional baselines, 2) substantially improving the targeting efficiency for campaigns with highly sparse conversions, and 3) highly reducing the overall history sizes used in targeting. Furthermore, our techniques have been deployed to production and scored a substantial improvement in targeting performance while imposing a negligible overhead in terms of overall platform running time.