Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation of Periodic Functions

Many astronomical phenomena exhibit patterns that have periodic behavior. An important step when analyzing data from such processes is the problem of identifying the period: estimating the period of a periodic function based on noisy observations made at irregularly spaced time points. This problem is still a difficult challenge despite extensive study in different disciplines. This paper makes several contributions toward solving this problem. First, we present a nonparametric Bayesian model for period finding, based on Gaussian Processes (GPs), that does not make assumptions on the shape of the periodic function. As our experiments demonstrate, the new model leads to significantly better results in period estimation especially when the light curve does not exhibit sinusoidal shape. Second, we develop a new algorithm for parameter optimization for GP which is useful when the likelihood function is very sensitive to the parameters with numerous local minima, as in the case of period estimation. The algorithm combines gradient optimization with grid search and incorporates several mechanisms to overcome the high computational complexity of GP. Third, we develop a novel approach for using domain knowledge, in the form of a probabilistic generative model, and incorporate it into the period estimation algorithm. Experimental results validate our approach showing significant improvement over existing methods.