Forecast of biosphere dynamics using small-scale models
Global Climatology and Ecodynamics(2009)
摘要
The biosphere-climate system, inside which we are all living, is subjected to different influences (influx of anthropogenic
CO2 and pollutants, deforestation, harmful land management, etc.). There are reasons to consider the well-known change in global
parameters (atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, distribution of precipitation, soil erosion, etc.) as the result of these influences. It will
be recalled that in Chapter 2 we discussed the fact that Kirill Kondratyev was critical of the fact that, while computer models
of the climate could predict future climatic conditions on the basis of gradual change, they were most unlikely to be able
to predict sudden catastrophic changes in climate. Therefore, the vital question arises: “Can changes in the various global
parameters lead to irreversible negative changes in the climate-biosphere system or a global ecological catastrophe?” The
possibility of irreversible changes may be not very high, but one cannot ignore it. So, the main aim of this chapter is to
take irreversible changes into consideration. Kondratyev also argued that the global carbon cycle was not well enough understood
or studied in enough detail. As well as addressing these issues, we shall discuss some experimental results on microecosystems
as well in this chapter.
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