Research on Small-sample Fuzzy Reliability Simulation Based on Bayes Monte Carlo Method

There are two weaknesses—subjectivity and complexity in the process small-sample fuzzy reliability evaluation based on Bayes method.By introducing information entropy principle,weighted idea and Bayes Monte Carlo(BMC for short) method,the whole framework of BMC method was established for small-sample fuzzy reliability evaluation.The small-sample fuzzy reliability simulation flow was given,and the corresponded algorithm was proposed based on BMC method.Finally,the simulation algorithm was realized using the Matlab tool,and the experiment of the small-sample fuzzy reliability evaluation for exponent distributing was designed.The result shows prior subjectivity and posterior complexity of Bayes method are reduced effectively using BMC method for evaluating small-sample fuzzy reliability.