The Systems Integration Technical Risk assessment fusing of Bayesian Belief Networks and Parametric Models
JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT & FUZZY SYSTEMS(2013)
Abstract
This paper presents an approach for modelling Systems Integration Technical Risks SITR assessment using Bayesian Belief Networks BBN. SITR represent a significant part of project risks associated with a development of large software intensive systems. We propose conceptual modelling framework to address the problem of SITR assessment at early stages of a system life cycle. This framework includes a set of BBN models, representing the risk contributing factors, and complementing Parametric Models PM, used for providing input data to the BBN models. In particular we describe SITR identification approach explaining corresponding BBN models' topologies and relevant conceptual model framework. This framework includes a set of BBN models, representing the risk contributing factors, fused with complementary PMs providing input data to the BBN models. Heuristic approaches for easing Conditional Probabilities Tables CPT generation are described. We briefly discuss preliminary results of model testing. In conclusion we summarise benefits and constraints for SITR assessment based on BBN models, and provide suggestions for further research directions for model improvement.
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Key words
assessment fusing,input data,Risks SITR assessment,Bayesian Belief Networks BBN,SITR assessment,Systems Integration Technical Risk,SITR identification approach,Parametric Models,model improvement,corresponding BBN model,BBN model,conceptual modelling framework,relevant conceptual model framework
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