Quantifying Success Factors for IT Projects: An Expert-Based Bayesian Model

Large investments are made annually to develop and maintain IT systems. Successful outcome of IT projects is therefore crucial for the economy. Yet, many IT projects fail completely or are delayed or over budget, or they end up with less functionality than planned. This article describes a Bayesian decision-support model. The model is based on expert elicited data from 51 experts. Using this model, the effect management decisions have upon projects can be estimated beforehand, thus providing decision support for the improvement of IT project performance.