Jasper Vrugt, Ph.D., studies the dynamics and behavior of natural and/or man-made systems to enhance process understanding and material characterization at different space and time scales and help illuminate tipping points and/or quantify change. Example questions include, why do our theories deviate from data? How can we detect, diagnose, and resolve epistemic errors? How do we quantify uncertainty in models and data? How do we explain the emergent macroscopic behavior of complex systems by micro-scale governing equations? How should we extract information from data? Ultimately, Vrugt's group is trying to understand how complex systems work, operate, behave, calculate and respond to control inputs. The answer to these questions must lie partly in the emergence of a new modeling paradigm, wherein a system’s macroscopic behavior follows logically from microscopic "laws" and generalizations. Publications span the fields of agriculture (irrigation), biogeosciences, computational science, ecology, engineering, geomorphology, geophysics, hydrology, hydropower, soil science and statistics.